I agree to your points,
@angore, except there have been a few (including us) who received a Deep Sleep message, in our case
95 minutes after the vehicle pulled into the driveway. It had also been driven quite a bit each of the two prior days.
When the battery started our quick drain, you can think of it as two loads on it. The typical load, and the unexpected load. It's the unexpected load that's causing the quick drain. These are not parasitic loads which can drain a battery over multiple days. Those are part of the typical load. This drain is from something outside the box. When it enters deep sleep, it minimizes the typical load, but had no effect on the unexpected load which continues to drain the battery despite the efforts to circumvent it.
To drain a 50 Ah battery with likely 70% charge or better in 95 minutes implies a load on the magnitude of 20 Amps. This may not be very accurate, but you get the idea. This is not the drain from a camera module.
Really there isn't much charge below 11.2V. If you look at a battery curve it's a cliff around there. If that load persists, the battery will be squeezed until there's no more juice to support
any load. I didn't record my battery voltage, but
@jimling reported 4V. The voltage could have been even lower, but had annealed a bit higher after the system completely shut down.
AGM batteries can withstand deep discharges and still function, much better than a standard lead-acid. Ours performed fine for two months afterwards with no hint of lessened performance, but was replaced once it was finally tested.