Initial JD Powers data is out

jeffcarp said:
Overall this looks really good for a first year vehicle.

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It's hard to understand the reality behind the JD Powers ratings. Their own rating caveat is "Previous year review data used.", meaning it doesn't actually reflect things that came out in 2024.

(It's nice to see the Lincoln Nautilus up there, but best I can tell none of the #1 - #3 listed ones make sense, given 2 are brand new in '24, and the RX ratings are sufficiently out of whack that I suspect they're reflecting prior-generation RXs too.)

Their #1 is the Lexus GX. The Generation (Gen) 2 GX was produced from 2009 through 2023 model year. The 2024 GX is a major new Gen (Gen 3) for them, new platform/tech/... It appears to have just recently become available in the US (later than the '24 Nautilus by a couple months). Their own caveat says they aren't actually using any user feedback relative to the Gen 3 GX.

Their #2 is the Lexus RX. The RX Gen 5 was released in '23. The Quality and Reliability rating is inconsistent with multiple issue areas found in '23 still showing late in the MY 2 ('24), including transmission issues with the 500, recurring (never fixed) battery-related problems, fit and finish issues (e.g., noises from poorly installed air intakes). Driving Experience on the RX seems odd to be higher than Nautilus, though they're close (and Nautilus made Top Safety Pick+, which Gen 5 RX doesn't get). Lexus Resale I'd expect to drop as the quality/reliability/... Gen 5 issues finally sink in.

(The RX issues I've seen since its '23 introduction make me think that Powers may be doing smoothing across Generations, lumping total "RX" together without any focus on a new, very different, version of an RX coming out. If it is restricted to new '23 sales, then perhaps Lexus had a push to clear their remaining Gen 4 '22 RXs out, again net skewing the data)
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I do not have much confidence in JD Powers.
 
markfm said:
It's hard to understand the reality behind the JD Powers ratings. Their own rating caveat is "Previous year review data used.", meaning it doesn't actually reflect things that came out in 2024.
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That isn't what that disclaimer means. It means that they are using data from the previous model year in their analysis of the current model. It doesn't mean that their analysis doesn't actually reflect things that came out in 2024.

For example, knowledge of a 2023 transmission can be used in their predictive model for how a 2024 model will perform. It is substantially similar? Is the supply chain the same? Is it used in other products?
 
jeffcarp said:
That isn't what that disclaimer means. It means that they are using data from the previous model year in their analysis of the current model. It doesn't mean that their analysis doesn't actually reflect things that came out in 2024.

For example, knowledge of a 2023 transmission can be used in their predictive model for how a 2024 model will perform. It is substantially similar? Is the supply chain the same? Is it used in other products?
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I do understand that concept, but "surprise" on the injectors (which were an already in use part), and the upcoming front brake change, and... Similarity only gets you so far, if the overall design is changing (the use case) - parts used in an overall different scenario (what the designers are supposed to consider - Is this appropriate? Are we changing stresses that would be expected?)

Knowing the boundaries (things that have actually been changed in '24, not quite the same use) matters.

JD Powers themselves do provide the asterisk note: "* Please use this rating with caution. The previous model year's rating was applied to this redesigned vehicle. These vehicles have the latest styling, technology, and other components, but are unproven in their first year and can be less reliable than their predecessor."

('24 is what would be called a true generation change for the Nautilus, different from a mid-cycle facelift or the odds and ends updates that do tend to happen yearly.)
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I agree that any data model has some uncertainties. It's a forecast and it has a confidence interval and a margin of error. My only point is that when it comes to deciding how I feel about any car, I'm going to go with the data scientists who built the predictive model over social media every time.
 
If I wanted to buy a '23, I would absolutely trust the JD Power '23 Rating assertions (that were based on '22 data - same generation vehicle, after multiple years of production, with any new 2023 data that did make it in being against that same generation), as pretty high confidence. Their asterisk acknowledges the '24 is redesigned, updated in multiple areas (it's a new platform launch).

Nothing wrong with what JD Power says, they caveat it. I fully expect the redesigned Nautilus to be solid, as the bugs get worked out, just that everyone here should recognize that the initial model year for a new platform release has teething pains that are honestly not reflected in the '24 JD Power Rating.
 
How do we know that the teething pains aren't reflected in the '24 JD Power Rating? What else would explain a 10% drop in predicted reliability from 88 last year to 80 this year?
 
jeffcarp said:
How do we know that the teething pains aren't reflected in the '24 JD Power Rating? What else would explain a 10% drop in predicted reliability from 88 last year to 80 this year?
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JD Power stated methodology has new owner surveys after 90 days of ownership.

Given internal massaging time before posting the ratings I'd budget cutoff as surveys received by end of May.

Three months before end of May is end of Feb. (approximation, "close enough").

The reported sales volume for Lincoln Nautilus in Jan and Feb 2024 were 2,034 and 3,396 ( https://fordauthority.com/fmc/ford-...sales-numbers/lincoln-nautilus-sales-numbers/) That's a nice pickup on sale, year-over-year (quarterly comparison: https://fordauthority.com/2024/06/l...umbers-figures-results-first-quarter-2024-q1/ ), though arrival of the '24 at dealers started in late January ( https://fordauthority.com/2024/01/2024-lincoln-nautilus-has-arrived-at-u-s-dealers/ ) - it is rational to expect that a fair number of the Jan/Feb numbers were the '23 Nautili that were still in dealer stock.

Reserve/BL shocks made it on the radar early on (SSM in late Jan), basically as soon as people were getting delivery, so this may well have been noticed (contribute to a reduction). The injector issue didn't reach an SSM (enough people complaining to get Lincoln to flag it as a problem area) until early April (hybrid production start lagged ICE by several weeks, and while some hybrid owners had very early failures others with failures drove a solid number of miles before a bad failure occurred); this may have been under the radar for the number of '24 Nautilus owners who aren't active on forums - if it didn't fail they wouldn't know there was an issue (though it's a real enough one to have resulted in the CSP to fix, for thousands of hybrids).

Net, they may have heard of the shocks, or simply downgraded a few points in caution, but their normal standard for surveys indicates they likely only got them for at most several thousand '24 Nautilus purchases, with a skew to ones having been ICE purchasers (due to hybrids reaching the US after the ICE started to show).
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JD Power has different quality metrics. The first one is IQS or Initial Quality Survey. This is sent to registered owners of vehicles who have had them for 90 days. This survey results have not been released yet. It shows they will be released on June 27, 2024.

2024 Key Dates​

Fielding: July 2023 - May 2024
Publish: June 25, 2024
Press Release: June 27, 2024

Another one is their VDS or Vehicle Dependability Survey that looks at 3 year old vehicles and analyzes problems encountered during the previous 12 months.

The one initially shown in this thread is none of these quality metrics. It is a "consumer rating" that is "based upon hundreds of thousands of independent and unbiased opinions of verified car owners."
 
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